The Round of 32 continues on Wednesday, July 1, and Thursday, July 2, with six knockout games and several meaningful gaps between our model and betting markets. The favorites are clear in every ...

The June Conference Board survey sent a softer signal, but broader labor data still point to a stabilized job market and a supportive backdrop for risk assets. The Consumer Confidence Index missed ...

Our Geopolitical strategists expect geopolitical risk to ease modestly in Q3, with the notable exception of Russia, where tensions appear underrated. The US midterm election will force the Trump ...

June inflation prints came in softer than expected across most major eurozone economies, reinforcing the case against further ECB tightening. Inflation undershot consensus in Germany, France, and ...

USD/JPY has reached its highest level since 1986, and markets are increasingly pricing the risk that the BoJ stays behind the curve. Verbal intervention from the BoJ and the US Treasury has so far ...

The US economy has remained resilient this year despite slowdown fears tied to geopolitical tensions. US economic data has surprised positively since the start of the year. The Iran war has ...

Our World Cup model correctly predicted 26 of the 32 teams advancing out of the group stage. With the knockout rounds now underway, we have published an updated model to reflect the new format. Across ...

The collapse in urea prices is giving markets a false sense of relief; Europe should not assume the food shock is over. Granular urea price has fallen back to prewar level of $440/Tn, but only after ...

The USD has moved sideways this year, but its behavior has become more defensive since the Iran war began. After fears of a ...