The USD has moved sideways this year, but its behavior has become more defensive since the Iran war began. After fears of a ...

Our US Equity strategists are raising their 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 from 7700. The increase is driven by a higher EPS ...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to make Fed-watching great again. The Warsh Fed will speak less and guide less. There is, ...

Our Geopolitical strategists see the DRC Ebola outbreak as a low-probability but high-consequence supply-chain risk. The ...

Our EM strategists view Korea’s equity tantrum as a warning for global risk assets and recommend taking profits and ...

Geopolitical risk may rotate to Russia/Ukraine in Q3, while the Middle East could reignite in Q4.

With the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the books, it is time to assess our forecast and rerun the model for the playoff stage.

The weekend saw renewed kinetic exchanges in the Middle East, in a ceasefire that has thus far done as much firing as ceasing. The weekend exchange was a fairly controlled escalation. Iran attacked a ...

The S&P 500 has become increasingly concentrated. We know that. But the critical question is not how many stocks are driving the market; it is how many factors are driving stocks. We define an AI risk ...

Our World Cup model correctly predicted 26 of the 32 teams advancing out of the group stage. With the knockout rounds now underway, we have published an updated model to reflect the new format. Across ...

The collapse in urea prices is giving markets a false sense of relief; Europe should not assume the food shock is over. Granular urea price has fallen back to prewar level of $440/Tn, but only after ...